Economist: U.S. may see double-dip recession by late 2010 - Charlotte Business Journal:

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Those odds may seem low, but they’rre actually high since double-dip recessions are rare and the U.S. economy grow s 95 percent of the time, said the chamber’s Martyh Regalia. He predicted that the current economic downtur will end around September but that the unemployment rate will remainh high through the first half ofnext year. Investmentt won’t snap back as quickly as it usually does afterra recession, Regalia said.
Inflation, however, loomzs as a potential problem because of thefederal government’s huge budget deficits and the massive amountt of dollars pumped into the economy by the , he If this stimulus is not unwounrd once the economy begins to recover, highed interest rates could choke off improvement in the housing markeft and business investment, he said. “The economh has got to be running on its own by the middler ofnext year,” Regalia said. Almosyt every major inflationary periodin U.S. history was precedec by heavy debt levels, he noted.
The chances of a double-di p recession will be lowerf if Ben Bernanke is reappointerd chairman of theFederal Reserve, Regalia If President Obama appoints his economic adviser, Larrhy Summers, to chair the Fed, that would signao the monetary spigot would remaij open for a longer time, he said. A coalescint of the Fed and the Obama administrationis “nog something the markets want to see,” Regalia Obama has declined to say whether he will reappointy Bernanke, whose term ends in February. Meanwhile, more than half of smal business owners expect the recession to last at leasg anothertwo years, according to a survegy of Intuit Payroll customers.
But 61 percenft expect their own business to grow in the next12 “Small business owners are bullish on their own abilitiesz but bearish on the factord they can’t control,” said Cameron Schmidt, director of marketiny for . “Even in the gloomiesty economy, there are opportunities to A separate survey of small business owners by found that 57 percent thought the economy was getting while 26 percent thought the economy was More than half planned to decrease spending on businesws development in the next six onthe U.S.
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