End of recession may be in sight - The Business Journal of Milwaukee:

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percentage points in May to 85, based on a 1997 benchmark of 100. The relative stabilityy in the UO Index over the past threwe months is consistent with a pattern ofeconomic stabilization, but falls short of a turn that wouldd conclusively mark the end of the recession, said Tim Duy, director of the Oregon Economic Forum and a UO adjuncy assistant professor, in a statement. Oregonn labor market data continue to be Initial jobless claims edgeddownward slightly, but remaijn at a level that suggests further declines in nonfarmm payrolls. Still, initial claims remaib well below the peak of Decemberd as the pace of economic deterioration hasslowed markedly.
Employment services payrollp — largely temporary help agencies fellin May, but, importantly, the rate of declines is slowing, Duy said. Nonfarm payrolls (not includedr in the index) fell by just 100 jobs durint May, an abrupt slowing compared to therecent declines. It is difficult to see a substantialp improvement in thejobs however, with initial claims remainingt at high levels, Duy said. The unemploymenty rate rose to 12.4 percent. Residential housing permitxs continuedto decline, fallinyg to just 627. The typical seasonal boost in buildingy activity islargely absent, a testament to persistent weakness in the housing market.
Buildersz are finding it difficult to compete in an environment of risinfg foreclosures and tighter underwriting conditions for home Duy said. The Oregon weight-distance tax reversed gains seen thepreviouds month. In contrast, new orderes for nondefense nonaircraftcapital goods, adjusted for inflation, rose in May to the highesg level since December 2008. Despited the low levels, the relative stability sincs the beginning of the year is a hopefup sign that the worst declines in businesss spending arebehind us, Duy U.S. consumer confidence rose agaibnin May, a further indication that consumer spendinbg has stabilized, he added. The Oregon economy likely remained in recessionin May.
That said, the pace of deteriorationb has slowed. The six-month annualized change in the indexx improved significantly over the pasttwo months, from -11.8 percen t in March to -8 percent in May. Similar improvement signales an impending end to the2001 recession, and woulfd be consistent with the prediction that economicf growth would firm in the second half of 2009. Duy said, caution is warranted. The UO Index has not yet turnedf upward, and the six-monty change remains well below rates normally consistent with economic and more than half of the index componentds remainbelow six-month ago levels.
Finally, there is a strong possibilitgy ofa “jobless recovery” as the economh continues to face structural adjustmen t issues that limit the pace of growth.